Premier League Relegation Odds: Five Teams in Danger of the Drop in 2025-26

The Premier League owes a lot of its popularity to its reputation for being wide open, though that hasn’t really been the case of late in terms of the battle to avoid relegation. The three promoted sides have gone straight back down for each of the last two seasons in the top flight, creating fears that the EPL is becoming a closed shop for the elite. It’s worth noting that both Manchester United (15th) and Tottenham (17th) suffered appalling seasons, but everything suggests that the three promoted sides face a big task to stay up. Fans of Burnley, Sunderland and Leeds will be bracing for a long year with that in mind, though the bookies seem to think the race isn’t done and dusted yet. We’ve taken a look at five of the key candidates for the drop according to the betting below. 

Burnley only lasted one year on their most recent stay in the Premier League, when they were criticised for making practically every mistake in the book under Vincent Kompany. A mass spending spree was rewarded with a dismal points tally of just 24, but they did bounce straight back from the Championship last term, racking up 100 points in the process. 

The most impressive aspect of their side last year was at the back, with the Clarets rather astonishingly shipping just 16 goals across 46 games. However, they have lost two key figures in that department this summer with the departures of James Trafford and CJ Egan-Riley respectively. Burnley have once again shown ambition in the transfer market under Scott Parker, with veteran defender Kyle Walker adding some much-needed experience, though they look weak in the forward department. With fixtures against Liverpool, Manchester City, Spurs, Manchester United and Nottingham Forest in their first six games, they have it all to do and are the current 2/5 joint-favourites to go down again. 

It’s a long-awaited return to the top flight for Sunderland, after a nine-year exodus from the big time. It’s likely to be a tough season for the Black Cats seeing as they sealed promotion through the play-offs and the winners of that have a mixed record the following year. 

Sunderland certainly can’t be knocked for ambition, bringing in 11 new players to the tune of around €153 million at the time of writing, with the headlines being exciting winger Simon Adingra from Brighton and the hugely experienced former Arsenal midfielder Granit Xhaka. To pay for this, star man Jobe Bellingham has left for Borussia Dortmund and Tom Watson, the man who scored the winning goal at Wembley, has been bought by Brighton. After such a summer of change, it’s perhaps no surprise that Régis Le Bris’ men have struggled in pre-season, losing five of their last six matches. The fixture list has given the new boys a chance, though it’s worth noting that they were promoted 24 points less than Burnley and Leeds respectively. Sunderland had the sixth best home record in the Championship last year and they will likely have to turn the Stadium of Light into a fortress if they are to defy their 2/5 odds and survive. 

Leeds sealed the Championship title on the final day last season with 100 points and they are the promoted side with the best chance of surviving according to the betting. 

If any side is big enough to avoid the drop it’s Leeds United, seeing as they boast one of the biggest fanbases in the country, though they have been forced to start again after their three-year stay back in the top flight came to an end in 2023.  Daniel Farke has masterminded United’s return to the big time and in style, though his public concern at a lack of signings in the forward department has to be a concern. Leeds’ fate will likely lie in their home form at Elland Road, which was comfortably the best in the Championship last term, when dropping just seven points in 23 games. The impending signing of Dominic Calvert-Lewin could prove to be a masterstroke if they can keep the England international fit, though their odds of 5-4 suggest they still have it all to do if they are to keep afloat. 

Considering that this is now their eighth straight season in the top flight, it’s certainly fair to say that Wolves are now part of the Premier League furniture, though they could struggle this time around. 

The respective fates of Southampton, Ipswich and Leicester were sealed relatively early, though for long parts of the season it was Wolves who they were trying to catch, with Vítor Pereira brought in midway through to steady the ship. A run of six straight victories in March and April ultimately kept Wolves up with something to spare, but it wouldn’t be difficult to envisage another difficult season, particularly as star man Matheus Cunha has joined Manchester United for a princely €74.20 million. The loan of Jørgen Strand Larsen has been made permanent in response, alongside the arrivals of wingers Fer López and Jhon Arias, though you have to fear for a side that without Cunha would have scored just 39 goals last year. If the closed shop is to burst this time, the bookies seem to think it could be Wolves who are the team to go. 

It’s been a difficult few years for Everton, who have rather been fighting for their lives over the last four seasons or so due to financial difficulties. The Toffees have proven a tough nut to crack however and having moved into their new stadium this summer, fans will be hoping they have turned a corner. Resources remain tight, though the arrivals of Carlos Alcaraz and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall on permanent deals give hope for optimism, while the loan signing of Jack Grealish could prove to be a masterclass. 

One of Everton’s main strengths has generally been their home form at Goodison Park, so it’s imperative that they quickly settle into their new surroundings, or it could be a long season. In David Moyes they have one of the best managers in the business and they ought to find just enough to survive - a sentiment shared by the odds compilers.