Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland were the big early movers. Both bagged braces in their respective opening matches against Senegal and Iraq. However, the duo were completely overshadowed by the great Lionel Messi, who scored a stunning hat-trick against Algeria in Argentina’s first match of their title defence.
Elsewhere, Scotland improved their chances of making it to the knockout stages with a 1-0 win over Haiti. Scotland’s strikers were never expected to challenge for the Golden Boot, and their failure to cash in against the minnows won’t have helped. But the bigger picture for Steve Clarke’s team is to reach the knockout stages, which they now look set to do.
As a result of many of the big guns already making significant contributions, fans and bettors have turned to the bookmakers to check out the latest top scorer odds and reassess their betting positions. So with the market now having exploded into life, we take a closer look at some of the betting favourites below:
Lionel Messi - 13/5 at bet365
With the great man turning 39 during this competition, fans and bettors could be forgiven for wondering if Lionel Messi could continue to deliver on the big stage. The Argentina captain quickly put an end to that debate with a stunning hat-trick against Algeria in his team’s comprehensive 3-0 win in their opening Group J fixture.
Messi was available at 12/1 with some Irish bookmakers pre-tournament. Those odds are now long gone. He already has three goals in the bank, and with Argentina likely to progress to the latter stages of the tournament it’s a case of how many more he can score.
A further incentive for Messi is he has never won the World Cup Golden Boot.
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Kylian Mbappe - 3/1 at TonyBet
Kylian Mbappe was the pre-tournament favourite at 5/1. He’s already shown he’s in the sort of form required to win a second Golden Boot with his brace against Senegal in France’s opening Group I fixture.
After Spain’s poor start, the French are the new favourites to win the World Cup. And their second half performance against Senegal showed why they are one of the most feared teams in the competition.
With Mbappe also in good form, the two-time winners are likely to go deep into the competition. This gives the Real Madrid striker a potential eight matches to top up his tally.
Erling Haaland - 13/2 at LiveScoreBet
Erling Haaland is making his first-ever appearance at the World Cup and he wasted no time making his mark with a first half brace in Norway’s 4-1 win over Iraq.
The Manchester City forward is arguably the most lethal finisher in world football at the moment. However, with Norway not among the favourites to get to the latter stages, Haaland will need a lot of goals in the group phase to give himself any chance of winning the Golden Boot at his first attempt.
Harry Kane - 8/1 at William Hill
Harry Kane has enjoyed a record-breaking season with Bayern Munich, scoring 61 goals in 51 matches in all competitions. The England captain won the Golden Boot in 2018 and is also his country’s all-time leading goal scorer.
Kane is England’s main source of goals and the Three Lions will need him to fire if they are to have a chance of winning silverware. If he can stay fit and carry on his remarkable goalscoring form, the Bayern striker has a serious chance of capping a sensational season with another World Cup Golden Boot.
Kai Havertz – 14/1 at TonyBet
Kai Havertz put himself into Golden Boot contention after scoring twice in Germany’s 7-1 win over Curacao in their opening Group E fixture.
Although he is not naturally a striker, Havertz led the line for Germany ahead of Deniz Undav against Curacao and looks set to continue in this role throughout the competition. He is no stranger to this position, as he regularly plays it for his club side Arsenal.
Germany are not one of the betting favourites, but are well equipped to reach the latter stages. Havertz already has two goals, and with group matches against Ivory Coast and Ecuador still to come, his odds are very appealing.
The Trailing Chasers & Players Still to Feature
The race to win the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot is well and truly underway. However, despite the early contributions from Messi, Mbappe and Haaland, there is still a long way to go to decide who picks up the award.
Early goals don’t guarantee a Golden Boot win. After all, nations can be eliminated early in the knockouts and take a leading contender out of the running. There will also be sides that improve as the competition evolves - Spain could be one such example, which would bring Lamine Yamal and Mikel Oyarzabal into the running.
And who can forget Cristiano Ronaldo. It would be a brave call to write off his Golden Boot chances so early, despite his far from good start. Players still well worth keeping an eye on are:
Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal)
Lamine Yamal (Spain)
Vinicius Junior (Brazil)
Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain)
Folarin Balogun (USA)
Michael Olise (France)
Julian Alvarez (Argentina)
Scott McTominay (Scotland)
John McGinn (Scotland)
Lautaro Martínez (Argentina)
Lawrence Shankland (Scotland)
How Is the Golden Boot Decided?
The Golden Boot is an award given to the player who scores the most goals during the FIFA World Cup. If there are two or more players who finish as the joint-highest scorers, then the tie-breaker rules kick in.
The first tie-breaker is the amount of assists a player has recorded. So if Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe both top score with ten goals each, whoever provided the most assists would win the Golden Boot.
If they are also level on assists, the player who has played the fewest minutes throughout the competition will be declared the winner.
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2026 World Cup Golden Boot winner tips and each-way value
The temptation would be to go with Lionel Messi after his hat-trick against Algeria. However, with France and Spain looking like two of the strongest nations in the competition, a bet on the great man might be misguided.
Kylian Mbappe has a proven track record in this competition. If not at this edition, he will almost certainly end up as the leading World Cup scorer at some stage of his career. Mbappe won the Golden Boot in 2022 and in 2018 he scored four goals, the joint-second amount in the competition.
France made it to the previous two World Cup finals and have a great chance of going all the way again, so all things combined, Mbappe looks the best value bet to win the Golden Boot.
Outside of the current favourites, Lamine Yamal could be worth considering as a strong each-way selection at 28/1.
Spain drew a blank in their opening match with Cape Verde. But they have too much quality and are likely to grow into the competition.
Even if they don’t win it, the Spanish are strong contenders to reach the semi-finals. This gives their attacking players the maximum eight matches to make an impact. Along with Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal and Ferran Torres are players also worth paying attention to in this market.
Finally, Cristiano Ronaldo can’t be ignored. His Portugal team looks very strong on paper and well capable of putting a run of results together.
The five-time Ballon d'Or winner has never picked up a World Cup Golden Boot. At 25/1, he looks another great each-way shout.
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Alongside his expert betting tips, Dean writes about all the latest sports news. He’s always on top of what’s going on in the world of sports, whether that’s player transfers, league updates, or race disruptions. He’s got the latest stories, and you can trust that every aspect has been verified across multiple sources.
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