World Cup 2026 Dark Horses: 3 Teams to Reach Quarter-Finals

Teams that may have previously struggled to get past the group stages will all of a sudden have the opportunity to go deeper into the competition. Three dark horse teams that look well equipped to exploit this opportunity are:

Japan – A strong team that has grown together is now coming of age.
Norway – World-class striker in a well-disciplined and tactically versatile team.
Colombia – Emerging side that almost won the Copa America in 2024.

All three are tactically disciplined and all have quality players in their squads well able to compete with the World Cup betting favourites. With a bit of good fortune along the way, any of the three could make it to the quarter-finals or beyond.

What Makes a Certain Team a Dark Horse?

A team is regarded as a dark horse if they have an outside chance of winning a tournament or simply exceeding expectations.

Dark horse teams don’t necessarily have to win the competition to earn this name. They may also be underdogs capable of overachieving. Morocco did this when they reached the semi-final in 2022 and Croatia when they reached the final in 2018.

Neither won the World Cup, but both gave great accounts of themselves and significantly overachieved.

Sometimes a strong teamwork ethic, along with tactical discipline and experienced players, can get the better of a more talented team on paper who aren’t prepared to follow instructions and work hard.

Identifying these dark horse teams can lead to good value bets. Irish sportsbooks often see massive spikes in engagement around these fixtures, launching targeted bonuses for World Cup to attract fans looking to back a tournament surprise.

3 Potential Dark Horses

Three teams that can definitely be described as dark horses and have a great chance of causing a shock at the 2026 World Cup are Japan, Norway and Colombia.

Japan

Given this is the seventh consecutive time Japan have qualified for the World Cup, it may seem a bit harsh to consider them as dark horses. However, the Samurai Blue are yet to make it to the quarter-finals. Three times they have gone out at the group stage, and three times at the Round of 16.

Reaching the quarter-finals would be a significant achievement for Hajime Moriyasu’s side. And even though the expanded format means they would have to play an extra knockout game to get to this stage, this looks by far their best chance of achieving the feat.

Captained by Wataru Endo of Liverpool, a lot of the Japanese squad play their football in the top European leagues. Japan not only has talent, they are well organised and disciplined, work hard for each other and the team has grown together over the past few years.

They recently demonstrated how much progress they have made by recording their first ever win over England when they beat the Three Lions 1-0 at Wembley in March.

If they can consistently produce that level of performance at the World Cup, they could easily break new ground and reach the quarter-finals.

Norway

Norway won eight from eight in World Cup qualifying on their way to what will be their first appearance in a finals since 1998. The 31st-ranked nation in the world did the double over 11th-place Italy in a flawless qualifying campaign that saw them score a staggering 37 goals.

Stale Solbakken’s side don’t carry the same tournament pedigree as some of their fellow Europeans. But they do boast Erling Haaland, one of the deadliest strikers in world football. Along with Haaland, they can also call on the services of Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard, Jorgen Strand Larsen of Crystal Palace and Alexander Sorloth of Atletico Madrid.

The strength in depth may not quite be there, but Norway have a well organised starting 11 that can cause more elite teams problems. They also have the ability to mix up their tactics and go long. Any team that underestimates Solbakken’s side in the knockouts may well rue the day.

Colombia

Ranked 13th, Colombia are another team that could get to the latter stages of the 2026 World Cup. Their previous best performance was in 2014, when they reached the quarter-finals. They followed that with a run to the Round of 16 in 2018, but failed to qualify for the 2022 edition in Qatar.

Since that failure four years ago, Los Cafeteros have been on an extraordinary run. Captained by veteran James Rodríguez, they finished runners-up at the 2024 Copa America, losing 1-0 to Argentina in a close final.

Nestor Lorenzo’s side then qualified for the 2026 World Cup by finishing third in the CONMEBOL qualifying group on 28 points, the same amount as Brazil.

Luis Diaz of Bayern Munich finished joint-second top scorer in qualifying with seven goals. He is set to lead the line for his nation at the upcoming World Cup, where they should have no problem qualifying out of Group K.

Once in the knockout stages, anything can happen. Lorenzo’s team have shown they can compete with the best nations from South America and they also know how to handle knockout football. Finally, their no-nonsense physical approach will also make them difficult opponents for Europe’s elite.

Comparing the Dark Horses: Key Stats

Country	Key Star Player	Strengths	Outright Odds
Japan	Ayase Ueda	Strong team unit bonded over years	50/1
Norway	Erling Haaland	Boast one of the top strikers in the world	25/1
Colombia	Luis Diaz	Good recent record in knockout competitions	33/1

Why the New Format Benefits Dark Horses

The new expanded format benefits dark horses as it almost guarantees a pathway from the group phase to the knockout stages. Almost every previous World Cup had what the media dubbed ‘The Group of Death’. There has been no mention of this in 2026, and this is because eight of the 12 third-place teams qualify for the knockout stages alongside the top two teams from each group.

Basically, there is minimal jeopardy for Japan, Norway and Colombia in the group phase. Qualifying for the knockout stages should be a formality. And while achieving this, all three nations will be building momentum, which makes them even more dangerous opponents.

All three have disciplined team structures that can cause problems for all the World Cup favourites. They also have big-name players who won’t be remotely fazed by facing nations like England, Brazil, France or Spain.

Squad depth is probably the biggest concern for all three. But if they can keep their respective best 11s on the pitch, no one will enjoy facing them.

My Opinion

Predicting dark horses isn’t simple. Teams can often look promising on the surface, but close attention has to be paid to their section of the draw and it’s always difficult to predict what will happen if key players pick up injuries.

This year, Japan, Norway and Colombia seem to tick all the boxes to be dark horses and look the strongest candidates to possibly upset the favourites at this World Cup. Check out the odds for World Cup to see how these three countries perform at different sportsbooks.

I don’t see any of them winning the competition. But it would be no shock to see at least two of them in the quarter-finals, and maybe even one making it to the last four.

That is likely to require a touch of good fortune, but if the draw opens up, any of the three could well spring a surprise.

FAQs

Below we answer some of the most frequently asked questions about World Cup dark horses.

What is a dark horse in the World Cup?

A dark horse is an undervalued team that is not regarded as one of the favourites to win the competition, but has the potential to go a long way and upset some of the more established nations.

Has a dark horse ever reached the World Cup semi-finals?

Yes, Morocco reached the semi-final of the 2022 World Cup and Croatia made it all the way to the final in 2018. In 2002, Turkey and co-hosts South Korea both made it to the last four.

Why do dark horses perform well in tournament football?

Dark horses can perform well in tournaments for a number of reasons. Good team harmony, momentum, tactical discipline and a lack of expectation can play a role. A bit of luck is often involved as well - usually a section of the draw opening up for them.

Which confederation produces the most dark horses?

Historically, Europe and South America have produced the majority of dark horses. And while the South American challenge has dropped off in recent years, Croatia have kept Europe’s tradition going with three semi-final appearances since 1998.